The price of solar?

[Andy Rhody]

Just completed a wind grid-tie project last fall. Concentrated on wind for about 3 years getting it together so I'm pretty much behind on solar.

Here's the way I look at solar prices and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Two or three years ago the price of solar was about 4 US dollars a watt. Now the consensus is that it's about a dollar a watt and and some places advertise 65 cents a watt.

As far as the reason in the reduction in price, I've heard things like the Chinese over produced manufacturing and created a "glut" or whatever, (and I'm sure that there are other reasons too), but here are my concerns.

1. If the prices are down as a result of a "Chinese glut", are they going to shoot back up?

2. Are they going to level off at around the present prices?

3. Can the prices get even lower in the not too distant future?

Seeing that I just turned 60 and retirment is in sight, I'm thinking that a solar grid-tie would be a good deal for me because it could knock down my utility bill anywhere from 70 to 100% for the next 25 years.

I'm trying to figure out when would it be the right time to "Pull The Trigger"? Now or later. What do you think?

Thanks,

Andy R.
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[Joe Blake]

Andy, it's like the old question "How long is a piece of string?", for me, the answer is "As long as it needs to be." I'm in Australia, so I can't comment directly on your costs, but I had 1600 watts of grid-tied power generation installed in 2009. The price of the actual hardware was a LOT higher than it is now ... but ... I received a series of government grants over the time which I estimate will take my "pay back time" to somewhere about mid 2015 ... but ... there's no definitive way I can say I'm ahead (financially) and therefore this would be the way for you to go. My feed in tariff has still got a couple of years to run (assuming that the relevant government decides to keep its initial election promise) so I'm actually making money despite the high initial cost.

However if you have a look at my thread "Some Cold Statistics", you'll see that I tend to use as my calculation start point the percentage of consumption that I generate. And my spreadsheet shows that from Jul 2012 to Mar 2013 I've averaged 101% - ie for that period of time I've generated more power than I've consumed.

Another factor I think you should take into account is the cost of grid-supplied electricity in dollar terms. We're (ie our state government) presently trying to get the cost of electricity down because some of the populace is grumbling about the high cost (I suspect without addressing how much power they're consuming, rather than just how much money they're paying). So you should also be asking whether the cost of power is going to rise, not just the cost of the solar panels etc. But since I don't work on the $ value, but the percentage generated, the price of grid power can go fairly high and it won't really bother me, because I generate so much. It's simply a case of I'm saving more money by not spending it.

If this little discourse seems to be rambling and disjointed, it's probably because there are so many factors that I'm trying to bring in to say ... there's no simple answer.

If I had the money I would like to have gone off-grid entirely, and be done with worrying about the increase in power prices, but that probably won't happen.


Joe

[Rob Beckers]

Hi Andy & Joe,

I don't think anyone can predict what PV prices will do in the future, here's my view though: One PV manufacturer that we represent told me recently that the price of PV cells (the largest expense for making a solar panel) had gone up slightly for the first time in years. There's also been a shake-out of the weaker brothers in that market segment, eliminating some production capacity (Suntech being a prime example, they went from being the largest producer in the world to bankruptcy). At the same time, demand remains strong, with many countries having favorable policies for PV. All that to say that I think it's entirely possible that the price of PV will either flatten off or possibly go up a little in the future. I do not think we'll go back to $2+ per Watt, nor do I think we'll see prices drop like a brick as we have seen.

The PV prices are also at a point where the cost of the panels is no longer overwhelmingly a factor in the cost of a PV system. Now things like racking, inverter(s), labor, permitting and engineering are an ever larger part of the total price tag.

So, Andy, in particular in your case where you have (at the very least) a 30% tax credit for PV (and possibly more, check the DSIRE database for your area), I'd say this is the time to pull the trigger. Maybe it will get better in the future, but odds are just as likely and possibly more likely that they won't.

Suntech panels can be had for 60 - 70 ct/W right now, sometimes even less (because they went belly-up and everyone is eliminating their inventory). I've been selling Canadian Solar panels for around 60 ct/W in the past weeks, sold many hundreds of kW's, they are getting rid of their lower-capacity panels (230W and under) since those are no longer produced and not much in demand for the regular prices. Even regular "non sale" panels are pretty cheap, around 98 ct/W for a 250W module. At those prices net-metering is profitable from day one after installation, let alone 20 years down the road when electricity prices have just one way to go.

Being completely off-grid is nice, but it is costly: Batteries are very expensive, and they wear out, needing replacement every 3 - 20 years (depending on type/price/use). The best of both worlds would be IMO to net-meter, and have a sub-panel with a few critical loads that have battery backup.

My 2 cents...

-RoB-

[John Szegda]

Hi Andy,

I,m in the same boat as you are, except I am 64 and semi retired. I was going to install a bigger Turbine to squeeze more power out of wind, but decided to go Solar. At this point I,m ready to pull the trigger. Rob and Joe have a good grasp on the nature of Solar business. I personally think when the US economy starts to turn, the cost of goods follow upwards. I give it two to three years. What size array are you thinking about.

John

[Andy Rhody]

Yeah, if now is not the time to pull the trigger, at least it seems like it might be pretty close. So much to study.

John Said:

What size array are you thinking about.


Well my lower garage has a southward facing roof which is 48 feet by 12 feet @ 30 degrees. I think it might hold a max of 6 to 8 KW's worth of panels.

[Rob Beckers]

Well my lower garage has a southward facing roof which is 48 feet by 12 feet @ 30 degrees. I think it might hold a max of 6 to 8 KW's worth of panels.

That'll fit 2 rows of 14 panels in (traditional) portrait orientation. 28 panels makes 6,300 Watt to 7,420 Watt, depending on panel sizes from 225W through 265W each (the first are very cheap right now, the last is the largest 60-cell panel we can currently get, much more expensive though).

For your location, a 30-degree southern roof will produce around 1,080 kWh per kW of PV per year. So, 6,3kW of PV would produce around 6,800 kWh per year. Take a look at your electrical bills and see how this stacks up to your use (the US average is 900 kWh/month), of course you wind turbine adds to the production too. For net-metering the electrical company will generally not pay for overproduction (they do in some locations, but at a very low rate), so you don't want to make more than you use.

-RoB-

[Angie Joe]

In market solar systems are available in high prices but i have a solar green system in my home thats price is so cheapful for all of friens ....Just try it and watch .